Dollars and Sense
By Adam Lauridsen
Tuesday, May 13th, 2008
There's no telling what the next few months hold in store for Chris
Cohan's
bank account. Between the expiring contracts of half the roster, Davis'
potential opt-out, the trade exception expiring, and Nellie choosing
between
Maui and Oakland, only uncertainty is certain. We'll have plenty of time
to
predict what will go down and then even more time to break it down once it
happens. This post, however, is to lay out the raw numbers that will
govern
the Warriors' immediate future.
[explanation of cap exceptions snipped]
Now the real numbers games begin. Keep in mind the projected 08-09 $58 mil
salary cap figure, key for any free agent signings.
$47.8 mil - The Warriors projected salary assuming no changes on the
current
roster. Since this only accounts for 7 players under contract (6, once
Azubuike exercises his player option), it's virtually meaningless in terms
of what our actually salary will be. It is under the salary cap. That,
however, does not mean that we're open for free agent signings. Here's
where
cap holds become im****tant
$78.9 mil - The Warriors' 08-09 salary for cap purposes once you factor in
all "cap holds." This number will gradually decrease as players sign with
the Warriors or other teams. For example, Pietrus, Barnes and O'Bryant
currently account for $16 mil in cap holds. Biedrins has a $10.8 mil hold,
while Monta only has a $1 mil hold (the numbers are based on prior
contracts). The take away point here is that the Warriors will not have
space to sign non-Warriors free agents while the holds are in place. Once
the holds disappear, however, they're still unlikely to have room. Andris'
and Monta's holds or new salaries will be over $10.2 mil combined, the
amount the team has before hitting the cap figure, even assuming that all
other free agents are renounced.
$87 mil - The Warriors 08-09 salary for cap purposes (including cap holds)
should Baron decide to opt out. Even if Baron jumps ****p, we'll still have
his cap hold on the books. Those hoping for a free agent signing if Baron
leaves are going to face long odds.
$61.1 mil - The Warriors 08-09 salary for cap purposes (including cap
holds)
should Baron opt-out and the Warriors renounce his Bird rights. Those
hoping
for a big free agent signing are still out of luck because the Warriors
are
over the cap thanks to other holds even after renouncing Baron.
$54.6 mil - The Warriors 08-09 salary for cap purposes (including cap
holds)
should Baron opt-out and the Warriors renounce his Bird rights along with
the rights of POB, Croshere, Webber, and Watson. Only with this gutting of
the former roster would we sneak under the cap and free ourselves to sign
a
free agent. The trouble is, even with these drastic measures (leaving us
with potentially only 5 players under contract), the team could only sign
a
free agent worth $3.4 mil based on its under-the-cap status. This is much
less than the mid-level exception - already available if the team is over
the cap. Prospects for those post-Baron free agents still don't look good.
$47.6 mil - Now the Warriors are finally getting somewhere. This would be
the salary for cap purposes (including holds) should the Warriors renounce
all their free agents (including an opted-out Baron) except Andris and
Monta. Under this scenario, the team could take on up to $10.4 mil in
salary
before hitting the cap. The only problem is it's hard to see a free agent
wanting to join a team of Ellis, Biedrins, Jackson, Harrington, Wright,
Belinelli, and Perovic. These would be the only guys locked up on the
roster - with a cap hold still in place allowing us to resign Barnes -
should the Warriors go down the "rebuild now" route. If a guy like Brand
or
Marion opts out hoping to win now, this doesn't look like the team to do
it.
What do all these numbers mean to me? In short, if the Warriors want to
add
significant talent, the trade exception is their best shot. They're not
going to have more than the mid-level exception to sign a free agent
unless
the team comes completely undone in free agency. And if that happens, no
non-Bird Rights free agent is going to want to joint the squad. There will
be a draft pick in the mix as well, but I'm not holding out much hope for
an
immediate contributor in the middle of the first round. The second take
away
point is that dreaming of signing a big free agent - Arenas, Brand,
Marion,
Jamison - is this season's version of the KG pipe dream. Even if Baron
opts
out, the numbers simply don't work. There are always scenarios you can
dream
up given enough time on the ESPN Trade Machine, but none of them make much
basketball or financial sense when you lash together all the pieces with
glue and string.
So, for all of us out there hungry for an improved team, it's likely the
trade exception - or another year of telling ourselves that "internal
development" is truly the way to an NBA champion****p. I'll run the numbers
in the next post that show why Cohan is likely to sit on the exception for
luxury tax purposes, meaning Warriors fans should prepare themselves for
another year of more of the same - for better and/or worse - when it comes
to our core contributors. I sure hope, as I type these final, potentially
bleak sentences, that Brandan's in the weight room and Marco's shooting
jumper after jumper.
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