Trade Exception "Disappointed" After Early Talks with Warriors
By Adam Lauridsen
Monday, May 12th, 2008
The Baron Davis contract extension sideshow has begun in earnest, more
than
a month and a half before the Warriors' point guard's opt-out deadline.
Don't
mistake the ominous quotations for a real story, however. I'd be shocked
if
Baron walks away from his contract. As a player with a reputation for
being
a chemistry killer, I'd be equally shocked if he demands a trade -
particularly from the NBA team most likely to let him do as he pleases,
for
better or worse, on the court. And all of this agent talk about
disappointing offers? I hold it one notch above blogger trade proposals in
terms of the actual impact on GM decision-making. But while we're on the
subject of GM decision-making, there's one choice facing the franchise
that
I think deserves far more attention than its getting.
When the Warriors traded Jason Richardson to the Charlotte Bobcats on
draft
night last year, they received not one, but two question marks in return.
We've
yet to see all that Brandan Wright has to offer, but fortunately we have a
few more years to watch him develop. We don't have the luxury, however, of
waiting on the second question mark we received in the trade: the Warriors
$9.9 million trade exception. Chris Mullin and Chris Cohan face a load of
questions this June: who to draft, whether to extend Baron, and whether to
use the trade exception. The last question is the most im****tant one when
it
comes to the success of the 08-09 team.
The Richardson trade exception will expire shortly after the 08 draft.
Here
are my guesses as to its fate, in order of likelihood:
Do Nothing - When the Warriors made the Richardson trade, it looked like a
classic salary dump. A young, low-payroll Bobcats gained a strong veteran
to
help them develop in the wide-open East while a maturing, salary-burdened
Warriors team gained cap relief to help them resign Monta and Andris.
Wright's
potential helped balance the deal, but in the here and now, the trade was
Richardson for cap relief. The relief will only materialize, however, if
the
Warriors sit on their hands as the exception expires. Given Cohan's track
record, I'm guessing the Warriors do nothing.
According to the great new salary charts at Draft Express
[http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-player-salaries/],
the Warriors are
already
committed for $48 million in 08-09, excluding new contracts for Monta and
Andris. Factor in $16 million, conservatively, for the Warriors youngsters
and $2 million for a draft pick, and the roster sits at $66 million for 10
players. The luxury tax threshold was $68 million last season. At a slight
increase - $70 million - for next year, the Warriors would still only have
$4 million for 3-5 players. As the Warriors' budget bench demonstrated
this
year, Cohan will sign players up to the tax, but hasn't shown a
willingness
to cross the line.
Add a Veteran - If the Warriors use the trade exception, my guess is that
it'll
be to add a veteran for immediate help. Up to $9.9 million in cap relief
packaged with a draft pick could be awfully tempting for teams like
Memphis
and Seattle, in the midst of complete rebuilding, or teams like the Mavs
and
Pacers, over the threshold with very little to show for their dollars. The
Warriors would add a veteran - ideally someone falling between 3 and 6 in
the depth chart - to help deepen its often non-existent bench. If the
player
could also fill a needed niche, such as jump shooting (Mike Miller comes
to
mind) or low post scoring (Chris Wilcox, to name one), the upside to the
Warriors becomes even greater.
Cohan pays the luxury tax under this scenario because he believes that the
team was closer to being competitive with the West's best than it looked
at
the end of the season. If the 08-09 team could somehow manage fresher legs
for Baron and Jackson, greater contributions from Ellis, Biedrins, and
Wright, and a consistent veteran piece to round out the talent, it could
find itself in a competitive sweet spot. The reigning powers would be on
the
down slide (Mavs, Suns, Spurs, Rockets, Nuggets) while the younger powers
might not be fully developed (Blazers, Sonics). That would leave the
Hornets, Jazz, Lakers and maybe the Warriors to fight it out for the West.
To rise to the level of the West's best, the Warriors don't necessarily
need
a new franchise player, but they also can't keep signing veteran minimum
deals and hoping for a miracle. Sometimes you get what you pay for, and
the
trade exception provides Cohan with a tremendous assets to improve his
team - if he's willing to swallow the cost associated with a move.
Get Even Younger - A dark-horse scenario, but one that could suddenly
become
realistic on the off chance Baron decides to leave Golden State. A Baron
opt-out makes this type of deal much more likely because (1) the Warriors
would instantly become less competitive and, therefore, much less in need
of
win-now talent and (2) the team, free of Baron's nearly $18 million
salary,
could use the exception without running into the luxury tax. Under this
scenario, the Warriors would likely target those teams in the worst
financial shape (and therefore most in need of the $20 million in NBA tax
relief the exception could bring). The Cavs, for example, could trade the
Warriors a first rounder to compensate them for taking Eric Snow's 08-09
expiring $7.3 million deal off the books a year early. The Cavs save $14
million in tax dollars but don't lose a member of their rotation. The
Warriors get an expiring deal that could be used in moves at the deadline
and a late first rounder for paying Snow's salary for a year.
This option isn't earth-shaking or particularly exciting from a fan
perspective, but would help soften the blow of Davis' departure by helping
stockpile more young talent. The only problem is the team will have to
make
a call regarding the trade exception before Baron's opt-out date. Unless
talks break down completely and/or Baron telegraphs his intentions early,
I'm
guessing the team doesn't make this type of move out of sheer
conservatism.
Adding salary through the exception - then reaching a last minute
agreement
with Baron - is exactly the type of payroll inflating convergence Cohan
likely wants to avoid.
Launder the Exception - I'd put the odds of this happening at nearly zero,
but it would be fun to witness from a cap-geek perspective. Here's how the
deal would work: the Warriors would accept players from a team that could
place itself under the cap post-trade (say, Memphis). The Warriors take on
Kyle Lowry ($1.1 mil, exp 08-09) and Brian Cardinal ($5.9 mil, exp 09-10)
with $7 mil of the trade exception. A day after that trade is consummated,
the Warriors turn around and trade Al Harrington ($8.4 mil, exp 09-10)
back
to the Grizzlies for an $8.4 mil trade exception (the Griz, under the cap
by
nearly $9 mil after the first trade, could take on Al's salary for nothing
in return). In essence, the trade is Al Harrington for Kyle Lowry and
Brian
Cardinal (don't scoff - it would land us a defensive-stopper back-up point
guard and cut salary in 09-10; Memphis does it to off-load one of its four
point guards for talent in other areas). By structuring it as two trades,
the Warriors could create a new trade exception from their old one, giving
them another year to shop around for ways to use it. Would it pass muster
with the NBA offices? I'm not totally sure, but I haven't found any rule
against it yet.
Before we spin off further into armchair GM land, the take away point from
the trade exception is simple. At the end of June, we should get a clear
indicatory of what Mullin and Cohan think of this team. If they use the
exception to bring in a veteran, they think the team is ready to compete
with the best. If they use it to bring in youngsters or picks, we're
treating 08-09 as a rebuilding year. And if they do absolutely nothing
with
it, the Warriors likely will face another year try to beat an increasingly
tough West on the cheap - with minimum contract band-aid players and two
sophomores we hope can become solid contributors.
My preference would be for the Warriors to use the exception to add
another
veteran piece. Unfortunately, unlike Baron Davis, the trade exception
doesn't
have an agent to drop unattributed quotations about the front office's
tight-fisted ways. As fans, we'll have to speak on its behalf.
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