Offensive Efficiency (and the Lack Thereof)
By Adam Lauridsen
Wednesday, May 7th, 2008
The Warriors spent much of the 07-08 season hailed as offensive an
offensive
powerhouse. Setting aside the issue that they gave up nearly as many
points
as they scored, it's statistically debatable just how good this team was
offensively. The Ws scored a lot of points, but a quick statistical
comparison with those teams left in the playoffs reveals that the Warriors
offense as an exercise in quantity over quality.
Good teams don't just score a lot of points, they score them efficiently.
To get a sense of the remaining teams' respective efficiencies, I've
ranked
the players accounting for roughly two-thirds of the teams' shots in order
of their offensive shares (individual field goal attempts / team field
goal
attempts). I've then listed their field goal percentages. The playoff
teams, whether at the top (LA - 83.1 shots) or bottom (Boston - 76.7
shots)
of shots taken per game, all reveal terrific offensive efficiency among
their go-to scorers. The Warriors (90.3 shots), on the other hand, seem
to
have given their worst shooters the green light to take the most shots.
The
numbers speak for themselves:
(Player / % of team field goal attempts / field goal percentage)
Golden State
Davis 21% .426
Jackson 18% .405
Ellis 17% .531
Harrington 13% .434
Los Angeles
Bryant 25% .459
Gasol 15% .589
Odom 12% .525
Fisher 11% .436
New Orleans
West 21% .482
Paul 19% .488
Stojakovic 16% .440
Pargo 10% .390
Utah
Boozer 20% .547
Williams 17% .507
Okur 15% .445
Brewer 10% .558
San Antonio
Parker 19% .494
Duncan 19% .497
Ginobili 17% .460
Finley 12% .414
Boston
Garnett 18% .539
Pierce 18% .464
Allen 18% .445
Rondo 12% .492
Cleveland
James 27% .484
Ilgauskas 15% .474
West 11% .440
Szczerbiak 10% .359
Detroit
Hamilton 18% .484
Prince 14% .448
Wallace 14% .432
Billups 14% .448
McDyess 10% .488
Orlando
Turkoglu 19% .456
Lewis 18% .455
Howard 15% .599
Nelson 11% .469
Considering the numbers in context, a few things stand out. Cleveland's
utter dependency on LeBron for offensive production is clear. The impact
of
the Gasol trade becomes even more disturbing when you factor in his
shooting
numbers for the Lakers. Detroit looks like it might be a bit out of its
league in the elite eight, at least offensively. Utah and San Antonio
both
have their top two scorers shooting at or above .500 from the field.
The Warriors, unfortunately, clearly don't belong with this collection of
offensively disciplined teams. While it would be wonderful to magically
get
a Gasol, Boozer, or Williams to shoot over .500 for us, there are a few
more
realistic options for the team:
* Monta up / Jackson down - We saw this trend at the end of the
season,
but it needs to continue. Monta's shooting more than .100 points better
than Jackson, making the choice between them clear.
* Move Harrington in a few steps - When you remove the three pointers
from Al's shot numbers, he connected at a .482 rate last year.
Unfortunately, nearly half of Harrington's shot attempts were from behind
the arc (the highest percentage on the team). I don't blame Al entirely
for
the lopsided numbers - Nelson urged him to shoot those to stretch the
defense. Still, given his less than all-NBA three point percentage (.375
-
Nash shot .47, Peja and Rip shot .44, Mike Miller shot .43) it's a
high-cost
strategy.
* Get more shooters - The pointlessly obvious solution. Whether by
draft, trade, free agency or internal development, the Warriors need to
find
another high percentage shooter to add to the mix. Ideally, next year's
chart would have: (1) Ellis taking the most shots on the team given his
stellar shooting percentage, (2) Davis taking fewer jumpers, thereby
dropping his total share of the shots while improving his shooting
percentage, (3) a legitimate three point shooter arriving as a third or
fourth scoring option for the team, and (4) Harrington and Jackson taking
on
reduced roles as third, fourth, or fifth options while demonstrating
greater
shot selectivity. If you really want to revolutionize the shot
distribution, you can dream of Andris or Brandan getting increased touches
with high percentage shots. So long as Nelson coaches the team, however,
the offense is bound to move from the outside in.
The pundits can go on and on about defense winning champion****ps. The
remaining teams provide plenty of sup****t for that theory. The list of
survivors, however, also seems to suggest that teams either lucky enough
to
have a gifted shooter and/or coached to have efficient offensive schemes
producing high percentage shots have an easier time fighting to the top of
the NBA heap. Nothing in these conclusions should be shocking, except how
far the Warriors are off the pace of the NBA's best. While Monta Ellis
still might move the Warriors into the prior category of teams with gifted
scorers, we won't be a member of the latter category so long as Nelson
remains on the bench.
|
