Will the Warriors' next coach come from this year's batch of 1st-round
losers?
By Tim Kawakami
Tuesday, April 29th, 2008
* I did another Q & A with my friends at the GoldenStateofMind website.
Here's
one part of it. I do prattle on, as always, but I like their questions.
They
make me think. And when I think, I always come up with something stupid.
This is not, by any means, the complete list of possible candidates for
the
Warriors' post-Nellie era. (Mostly because we don't know when the
post-Nellie era will begin. Only Nellie knows. Does he?)
I'm just starting with this group because it's a good set of coaches-high
quality, yet you can also see why Phoenix's Mike D'Antoni, Toronto's Sam
Mitchell, Denver's George Karl, Dallas' Avery Johnson and Detroit's Flip
Saunders might be on shaky ground this summer for various reasons.
Not all of them are eliminated yet, but they will be soon (except
Saunders-though I never know with those weird Pistons), then the
merry-go-round begins.
Now, of course, the Warriors won't be jumping in immediately-Don Nelson
has
been guaranteed his salary for next season and, presumably, at some point
around Don's self-prescribed July 1 deadline (which he almost certainly
will
delay), he'll let the Warriors know if he's coming back next season.
But the Warriors will have an opening at some point soon, whether it's
after
July (unlikely-I think Don is coming back) or at some point either during
the 2008-09 season (if Don quits in the middle of the campaign) or, most
likely, in the summer of 2009.
Let's presume not all of the above-mentioned guys will be fired. Safe
presumption.
Let's also presume that not all of them will be hired immediately if they
are fired (though many will be-I think the Knicks are waiting to see who's
available before hiring Mark Jackson and I think if Mark Cuban fires
Avery,
he'll want one of the playoff guys).
Let's presume the Warriors will go hunting for a coach next summer. I
think
any of the above-mentioned guys could be live candidates and if they
barely
survive this summer, they definitely could be endangered species by this
time next year.
Now my guy was/is always Larry Brown, but he's apparently going to be
hired
by Charlotte (though that doesn't eliminate him from any other job at any
other time, of course).
This also presumes that Chris Mullin won't automatically and immediately
turn to assistant Keith Smart when the time comes. and I think that's a
decent assumption. I think Keith will be a top candidate, but that Mullin
will take a long look to see what else is available.
We don't know who else might come available and what the Warriors' exact
roster will be when Nelson walks away, but just for this time period,
STIPULATING THAT THIS IS PRELIMINARY AND WHOLLY INCOMPLETE, here's a short
handicap:
* KEITH SMART.
-Probability that he's available for the Warriors when Nellie leaves:
100%.
-Reasons to hire: Knows the franchise intimately, good chemistry with the
players, has run many practices under Nelson, strong, commanding presence,
could make himself inevitable after another year of tutelage under Nelson.
-Reasons not to: Will he want to play as fast as Mullin wants? Also, still
a
question mark as an NBA head coach (has brief experience) and it's not
like
other teams are banging down his door seeking interviews; it's not always
best to turn over a team to an assistant after a strong hand
leaves-players
still look at the assistant as a buddy or an apparatchik, not a boss.
* MIKE D'ANTONI.
-Probability that he's available for the Warriors: 10% this summer, 40%
next
summer.
I don't think he's getting fired after the Suns lose to San Antonio
(again),
but if he does, he'll get swiped up in 10 seconds by either the Raptors,
Knicks or Dallas (or somebody else who might create a vacancy just to get
D'Antoni).
Warriors' best shot at D'Antoni is if he sticks around next year, then
leaves next summer. right when the Warriors would be searching.
-Reasons to hire: Perfect fit for the post-Nellie Warriors-plays
super-fast
to fit the Warriors' style and roster, already has Mullin's respect, is a
proven communicator, players would want to come join him.
-Reasons not to: Would be expensive and might want personnel power, which
Mullin shared with his mentor Nelson but it's unclear how that'd work with
the next coach. Not exactly a defensive-minded guy, but that's not a
terrible disadvantage with the Warriors.
* SAM MITCHELL.
-Probability that he's available for the Warriors: 15% this summer, 15%
next
summer.
If he gets fired in Toronto, he'll get snapped up right away. If he
doesn't
get fired this summer, he'll probably find a way to win a round next year
and he won't be going anywhere.
-Reasons to hire: One of my favorite young-ish coaches-stresses defense
(though he doesn't have many defensive-minded players in Toronto) and
unselfish offense and you can't go wrong with either one, in my book.
-Reasons not to: One big problem for Mullin: Mitchell isn't a run-run
coach
and Mullin wants his team to play fast. Also, Mitchell can get intense,
which isn't always a bad thing, but sometimes that can scare GMs who want
players to feel comfortable. He also might be expensive. Toronto plays
weird, but that's because I don't think the roster fits his style.
* AVERY JOHNSON.
-Probability he's available for the Warriors: 20% this summer, 25% next
summer. I don't think he's going to get fired by Dallas, but if he does,
he's
also a likely scoop-up for somebody else ready to act swiftly.
-Reasons to hire: He's followed Nelson once, and produced a team that
should've
won the title. Avery has everything you'd want in an NBA coach-fire,
brains,
communication abilities, focus.
-Reason not to: With all those attributes, you'd figure he'd be growing on
the job, but he seems to be shrinking a bit, including this season's
trouble
with New Orleans. Nelson out-coached the heck out of him in last year's
playoffs and that's always scary.
Johnson's not getting out-coached this year-his roster just doesn't work
and
some of that is his fault. He'll be expensive and he's a little kooky (not
always a bad thing).
* FLIP SAUNDERS.
-Probability he's available for the Warriors: 10% this summer, 30% next
summer.
Slight chance he's fired by the Pistons if they go out in this or the next
round, but if he is bounced, he's another top candidate for any other
opening. He could definitely get fired next summer, however.
-Reasons to hire: Excellent offensive X-and-O man with a steady presence.
If
you're a playoff-ready team, he's your guy, and Mullin likes
offensive-minded guys.
-Reasons not to: Sort of a Young Nellie-he gets teams to a certain point,
but somehow, the roster never seems to work or the system fails and he
always ends up ejected from the playoffs a round or two earlier than you
thought. He'll be expensive, also.
* GEORGE KARL.
-Probability he's available for the Warriors: 2% this summer, 40% next
summer.
-Reasons to hire: There's no sharper coach in the NBA, and time has
smoothed
some of Karl's rougher edges. If Nellie can make a grand Warriors come
back
years after his first tenure, why not George?
-Reasons not to: Karl's a defensive-minded guy, so what the heck happened
in
Denver this year? Again, like many of the previously-mentioned guys, there
are roster problems with the Nuggets, and again, some of that is Karl's
fault. He'll cost a bank vault. and he might be a short-timer: Do the
Warriors want to go that route two times in a row?
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