[RM note: Tim sure does like to type...]
Ellis, Biedrins salary FAQ: Max Warriors offer for either would be 6
years,
$98.5M (or slightly more)
By Tim Kawakami
Friday, April 18th, 2008
* IM****TANT NOTE: They won't get the max. Obviously. But the parameters
are
always crucial to know, at least for me. These are the parameters.
If I had to guess, I'd say Monta Ellis' value is something like 6 years,
$58M. Biedrins might be 6 years and $50M. Now we'll see.
This one had me scratching my head, I'll be honest. It took me hitting the
books, calling around, meditating at the foot of a David Stern ****trait,
and
using every ounce of mathematical sense that had not dissipated from my
brain years ago.
Question: What's the maximum the Warriors can offer their valuable young
restricted free agents, Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins?
After coming up with several wrong answers off the top of my head and
several more wrong ones after some CBA research and then getting a voila
moment that reminded me of a college statistics final I almost bombed-but
saved at the end. here's my answer:
* The maximum the Warriors can offer Ellis and Biedrins is the same: 6
years, $98.5M. (Based on a salary cap of $54M. It could go higher.)
* The maximum any team other than the Warriors can offer Ellis and
Biedrins:
5 years, $75.2M.
Now I'm not saying either player will receive anything close to those
figures, though Ellis might come close enough to $75M that nobody will be
weeping in the Ellis household.
The point is, the Warriors have large built-in advantages with both
players.
The NBA's CBA is built to encourage re-signing with a player's existing
team
and the Warriors carry all of those advantages, plus the right to match
any
offers, with Biedrins and Ellis.
Chris Mullin is playing it right, too, by declaring that he'll match any
offer for either. That doesn't ruin his leverage-actually, it'll probably
help leverage the Ellis and Biedrins deals down in value. (MORE ON THAT
LATER.)
First, let's clarify some things and again, I pray I have it right but I'm
pretty sure I do:
-Along with everybody else, I'd assumed that longest deal from the
Warriors
that Ellis and Biedrins could receive would be for 5 years. That's wrong.
They can both get 6 years from the Warriors and I'd bet they both get 6
years. Book it.
Last year, along with the rest of his 2004 1st-round draft class, Biedrins
only could've received a 5-year deal (because he still had this year's
contract in place and you can only be under contract for a total of 6
years
at any time).
That's how it gets confusing. Dwight Howard got 5 years, $84M. Kevin
Martin
got 5 years, $55M. Why not 6 years? It's because they signed last summer,
not this summer.
This summer, neither Biedrins nor Ellis (who was a 2nd-rounder in 2005, so
he 3 years on his rookie deal) are under contract, so they can sign for 6
years from the Warriors.
Also, the Warriors get the added edge of being able to offer both players
10.5% raises each year-other teams can only offer 8% raises. That really,
really adds up. (Just check the difference in the Warriors/opponents max
offers listed above.)
-Since they both have "Bird rights," the Warriors can re-sign either
player
above and beyond salary-cap restrictions, up to the maximum salary for
their
time of service.
The CBA says either $9M or 25% of the cap, whichever's larger. 25% of $54M
is larger, so.
Biedrins and Ellis can both receive a 2008-2009 salary of $13M (exact
figure
pending NBA cap adjustments).
Again, neither will start that high (Dwight Howard and Al Jefferson did
last
summer, and their extensions kick in this July 1), but that's just to give
you an idea of how high it could go.
-The Warriors could shut down all discussions for either player by
offering
what is termed, nicely, a "maximum qualifying offer," and, as I've
explained, that would be 6 years, $98.5M for both. Any MQO for a
restricted
F/A gives the home team major rights, but again, very MQOs are unlikely in
these two cases.
But let's put it this way: If Mullin makes an offer anywhere near those
numbers to either player, this game is over. There will be no other offers
from other teams.
-If Ellis and Biedrins find a team far enough under the cap to offer them
something more or better than the Warriors do, the Warriors would have
seven
days to match the offer or let the player go.
-Repeat: Mullin's stance that he will under every circumstance keep Ellis
and Biedrins is a smart tactical move.
It doesn't mean it's an absolute blood-on-contract guarantee.
For instance, Memphis and Philly right now are the only two teams with
enough cap space to make a bold free agent play. If one of those teams
offers Biedrins or Ellis 5 years, $65M, I'd say there's a 50-50 shot that
Mullin does not match.
But 2 things for Memphis or Philly in such a scenario:
1) Why would you be willing to give up all of your hard-earned cap room
for
either player? You'd have to think on that one.
2) Even if you're willing to go that high, why would you freeze yourself
during the July player movement hurly-burly, sit and wait a week for
Mullin's
decision (with the offer sheet terms sitting on your cap), when he's
semi-likely to match anything you toss out there, anyway?
It's basically the same stance Mullin took with Mickael Pietrus during his
restricted F/A summer last year-I'll match anything and I won't do a
sign-and-trade (for teams over the cap) unless I'm totally happy with the
package I get back.
End result: No deal, Pietrus returns for his qualifying offer.
That won't happen with Ellis and Biedrins, because Mullin obviously wants
both very badly to stay Warriors. They'll get plenty from the Warriors,
whether or not they have an offer sheet waiting or teams hoping for a
sign-and-trade.
-Other notes: Outside offers have to be for at least two years or more.
Basically, you can't draw the Warriors into matching a one-year deal which
would make Ellis and Biedrins unrestricted F/As next summer.
-If the Warriors chose to just retain their rights with a regular
qualifying
offer (125% raise for Ellis, $3.6M for Biedrins), either player could take
that and play out next season to become unrestricted next summer.
That's very unlikely. They both want to stay in Oakland. They both could
get
large money for the long-term. Why risk a short-term deal when you already
have what you like?
|
