The Reckoning (Warriors 121, Sonics 126)
By Adam Lauridsen
Thursday, April 17th, 2008
"My reputation grows with every failure." - George Bernard Shaw
Don Nelson and Baron Davis arrived in Oakland with reputations. Chris
Mullin
earned one quickly in his early days of GM. In the magical 06-07 run, they
transcended them. In 07-08, they leave the season haunted by them. Just
warfare theory rests on a sense of proportional response. Just criticism
should play by the same rules. Mullin, Nelson and Davis are the Warriors'
biggest pieces, the engines driving their successes. They, therefore,
cannot
duck and hide when things go wrong. Whether or not you want to label a
48-win, no playoff season a failure is between you and your basketball
deity. What is undeniable at this point, as the Warriors sit at the end of
a
string of losses against the teams they once considered peers, is that
something has gone wrong. At the end of the 07-08 season, there are eight
teams in the West better than us. With the Blazers, Clippers, Kings and
even
Sonics improving in a hurry, the 08-09 season doesn't look like it's going
to be any prettier. There's no denying the fun we've had this year, but
now
it's time for the reckoning.
Wednesday night against the Sonics was a classic pride game. As a team,
the
Warriors played as if they didn't have much to be proud about. There were
exceptions - another tremendous workhorse performance by Biedrins, a
typically efficient night from Ellis, and the breakout offensive explosion
we've been expecting for the past 81 games from Belinelli. But the
veterans
that were supposed to lead this team to playoff glory - Davis, Jackson,
Harrington - looked defeated and disinterested. They shot a combined 12-40
from the field and managed 7 rebounds between them (6 from Davis). As bad
as
the stats look, the body language was even more offensive. Jackson and
Harrington get a pass from me for now (I'll do a full breakdown on the
roster later this week). Since we're officially in the off-season, I'll
start at the top of the Warriors and work my way down:
Chris Mullin - Mullin earned a reputation during his first few years as an
easy mark for player agents. He handed out huge contracts that left the
Warriors immediately pinned under the weight of their own overly
optimistic
assessments. Mullin did a great job getting the Warriors back to a
reasonable cap position with the Dunleavy / Murphy trade. The Richardson
trade, despite still-debatable emotional fallout, swapped an aging
swingman
with bad knees for a huge-upside, young big man, while furthering the
contract purge. Finally, despite tough talk from free agents Pietrus and
Barnes, Mullin held the line and forced them to return at reduced rates.
At
this point, however, Mullin's smart cost-cutting moves necessitated by his
prior mistakes swung too far in the other direction. Mullin rounded out
the
rest of the roster with low-cost NBA retreads (Croshere, Hudson) and
totally
untested youngsters (Azubuike, Wright, Belinelli, Lasme, Perovic,
O'Bryant).
The biggest mistake of my blogging year was over-estimating what the bench
could give us. Mullin seems to have worn the same blinders. Barnes had
only
managed one consistent year of NBA play, we knew Pietrus' all-too-obvious
faults, and everyone else was either low reward or a total question mark.
It
was a cheap off-season, but not a productive one for a team looking to win
now. Nelson entered the year with a roster of only 5 consistent NBA
talents.
Don Nelson - Faced with a roster of only 5 consistent, game-ready NBA
talents, Nelson had a choice. He could either (1) play those 5 as much as
possible and hope that it would be enough to get him to the playoffs or
(2)
gamble with the rest of his roster and hope to stumble upon contributors
somewhere in the mix. Nelson chose option 1 and the rest is history. He
faced a lot of immediate pressure to take the conservative route given the
team's 0-6 start due to Jackson's suspension. The team spent the first two
months digging itself out of the early hole, fighting tooth and nail to
get
back into the fight. I don't take issue with Nelson for the early third of
the season. Where I think things went wrong is the middle third. From the
middle of December through January and into early February, the Warriors
faced a long stretch of easy opponents. They managed to build leads
against
most of these teams. Rather than give the bench players some significant
burn with these leads, with the goals of building confidence, familiarity,
and real game experience, Nelson kept his starters on the court
consistently
with 15+ point leads. The starters often blew the leads, forcing the same
panicked finishes that would have occurred under the worst case scenario
of
a bench collapse. The Warriors emerged from the middle third of the season
-
during which Nelson seemed to cling to his starters for dear life in every
game - with a decent record but a physically wasted team. During the final
third of the season, against the competition that really mattered, we all
know what happened.
The questions that we'll be debating for the next six months is what
Mullin
and Nelson could have done differently and, more productively, what they
should do differently this off-season. I'll spend the dry months of the
summer posting endlessly on these things for those die-hards who want to
stick around, but here are my early thoughts (which are by no means
original
or shocking):
1. You get what you pay for in a bench. Mullin failed to invest the
mid-level exception in a proven NBA talent who could be counted on for
game-in, game-out production. We hoped Barnes or Pietrus would be this
guy.
Azubuike may still grow into him. Regardless, we lacked him (and the 20-25
minutes a night he could have bought the starters in terms of rest).
Paying
the luxury tax certainly stings, but so does losing out on playoff
revenues
due to a final 15 game flameout.
2. Exploit the advantages of going small. Nelson's small teams manage to
beat bigger teams on occasion because they neutralize the two advantages
of
size. On offense, the high percentage shots of the post game are replaced
with the high percentage shots of fast breaks and dribble penetration. On
defense, the possessions gained through strong rebounding are replaced by
possessions gained through aggressive ball-hawking defense. Nelson was
forced to play small largely due to the talent on his team (although I do
believe he underutilized Biedrins for most of the year). To exploit the
two
advantages of going small described above, however, you need an energetic
and disciplined team. The energy was lacking all year due to the absence
of
bench depth and the discipline disappeared for reasons I'll describe
below.
Nelson's system didn't produce results this year - and hence the usual
calls
for Nelson to find a big man - but I think there's an argument to be made
that Nelson's plan could have succeeded again (like we saw at the end of
06-07) had he gained one or two bench contributors, done a better job
managing minutes, and instituted some discipline. In 08-09, he'll either
need to find the missing pieces and do a better job coaching around the
gaps
or find that mythical big man that's eluded him his entire career.
3. Injury prone veteran band-aids and a running team don't mix. For
veteran
help, the Warriors brought in Troy Hudson, Austin Croshere, and Chris
Webber. All three are extremely injury prone. Shockingly, all three spent
most of their time with the Warriors injured. The pace of Nelson's teams
takes a heavy toll on young, healthy bodies. It destroys older bodies,
particularly when they're new to the system. These veterans were cheap
because they were risky, and the Warriors as a team were in a position to
heighten the risk through their style of play. For the future, I say
either
spend the money on veterans who aren't broken down or take your chances
with
younger players from the D-League that are less likely to fall apart after
two practices.
4. Defense matters. Contrary to what some say, the Warriors did play
defense
at times this season. There were short bursts in games when they punished
teams, reducing smooth offenses to chaos by attacking the ball and
patrolling the passing lanes. For most of the season, however, they didn't
play this type of defense. And Nelson let them get away with it. By
overlooking plain laziness on many occasions by Davis, Ellis, and (less
often) Jackson, Nelson sent the message that it would be tolerated. Once
it
was tolerated, it became standard practice. And after enough time as the
usual course of business, the team seemed to forget how to turn up the
heat
the way it used to. When they needed crucial stops against LA, New
Orleans,
Dallas, Denver, or Phoenix, they were unable to get things done. Nelson
used
to demand maximum effort from the top of a roster to the bottom for those
hoping to earn minutes. In 07-08, the rules seemed to change.
What do you get when you roll all of these things together? A 48 win team,
capable of consistently squeaking by bad teams but increasingly frustrated
by the true contenders, able to execute high-percentage systems throughout
games in which the Warriors could only get things together for fits and
spurts. The hare may be fun to watch at various points along the race
course, but you want your money on the tortoise at the finish line. No one
captured this more than the face of the team.
Baron Davis - When Nelson benched Baron in the second half of the Phoenix
game, it was an admission of both their faults. Over the course of this
season, Baron gradually drifted away from being a playmaker that elevated
his teammates (see Paul, Chis and Nash, Steve) into a play-killer that
busted offensive plans at the worst possible moment and seemed far too
content to pound the ball, fade away, and/or pull up from behind the arc.
In
short, Bad Baron won out over Good Baron. Baron spent the first half of
the
Phoenix game engaging in nearly ever brutish habit in his playbook.
Nelson,
knowing there was little chance to make the playoffs, pulled the plug on
his
star in a weak effort at reigning in a problem that had long ago slipped
away from him. The compromise under which Baron and Nelson worked during
06-07 went something like this: Baron would play within Nelson's system
until glory time. With the game on the line, however, Nelson would let
Baron
be Baron. This system worked into the middle of this season (and even
featured classic Davis game-winners against the Heat and Celtics). Two
things, however, appear to have derailed this delicate détente.
First, Davis got snubbed for the All-Star game. After playing within
Nelson's
system, working to elevate his teammates, and saying all the right things,
Davis was once again on the outside looking in. Being a good soldier had
led
to no medals, only redeployment. Second, it became clear after the
All-Star
break that Nelson intended to leave Baron on the court whenever possible.
Baron, in turn, started coasting for stretches of the game to have
something
left at the end of the game and season. I don't fault him for it - it was
a
physical reality given the minutes he played. As the one setting the tone
and tempo for the Warriors, however, the coasting was contagious. Nelson
appears to have believed that Baron coasting was the lesser of two evils.
We'll
never know whether he was right. In the middle of the season, Baron's
coasting appeared voluntary. By the end of the season, we could no longer
entertain the pretty thought that Davis could turn things on and off at
will. The back-breaking loss to the Nuggets was the first time that I can
remember that Davis used fatigue as an excuse (Jackson, interestingly,
still
to this day refuses to do so). Two games later, with the slimmest of
playoff
hopes on the line against Phoenix, Nelson wielded Davis' fatigue excuse
against him to justify the benching of his star.
The most significant question is where do Baron and Nelson go next. I had
hoped Davis would bounce back against Seattle to push the tempo and
distribute the ball. No such luck. Whatever rut Davis settled into, he was
still in it Wednesday night. He has six months to find his way out of it.
If
Nelson returns (I think this is a big if), he'll have to demand
accountability from Davis to improve the Warriors' chances. And if Davis
returns (I think this is a small if), he'll need to be mature enough to
rise
to the challenge rather than chafe under it. Finally, Mullin needs to
provide a roster where there are real alternatives to make this plausible,
both so that Nelson can turn to someone else to run the team and Davis can
get some rest to allow him to play all-out while on the court. The
Warriors'
three most important figures all failed in their own, interconnected ways
this season. When it comes to assigning blame, any fight about appropriate
distribution should be first and foremost among these three.
Losses lead to frustration. Frustration leads to blame. Blame can either
lead to unproductive, festering negativity or critical, productive action.
It's true for the Warrior and for this blog. Don't mistake the above
criticism as a lack of appreciation for what we witnessed at times this
year
or what we have to look forward to next year. As people who care about
this
team, we want them to improve and continue to succeed. Thanks to an early
exit this year, we'll have an extended time to come together to discuss
what
we think are the best paths forward. Fans, like the three crucial Warriors
above, likely have their own individual opinions and solutions. The
success
of the team (and the impending six month fan blog discussion) will depend
upon finding a way to give expression to those differences in a way in
which
they can interact to produce something far greater than the sum of their
parts.
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