Re: 2008 NBA Champion****p Monday 5/19/8

"Gary Collard" <dm@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message 
news:sxIXj.5992$4K5.2844@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Alson Wong wrote:
>>
>> http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/futures/#1832
>>
>> The Spurs are 8/1 and the Hornets 4/1. ***ulatively that would be a
>> probability of 0.31 (corresponding to 11/5 betting odds) for one of the

>> two
>> teams to win the champion****p.
>
> That's out of whack, since their odds if it's all random should add to 
> 0.25, and with being the road team both series it's less than that.  BP 
> will be posting the log5 predictions on the next round when they're set.

It's out of whack mainly because the Hornets are listed at 4/1 (0.20 
probability) without having yet advanced to the WCF. Betting odds normally

will overestimate the probability because that's where the book's edge
comes 
from. The Lakers and Celtics are both even money, adding up to a
probability 
of 1.0, which is obviously a practical impossibility, and would be a bad
bet 
if you took both of them.